Robot-driven cars on roads by 2030: scientist
February 17, 2007
Scientists are developing the next generation
of robot-driven cars and predict they could be shuttling humans
around by the year 2030, a conference was told.
The first wave of intelligent robot cars, capable of understanding
and reacting to the world around them, will be tested this November
in a competition run by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency (DARPA). Scientists are
developing vehicles which will not only be driven by robots
independently, but will be able to operate in a simulated city
environment.
"In the past it was sufficient for a vehicle
just to perceive the environment, said Sebastian Thrun, an associate
professor of computer science and electrical engineering at
Stanford University.
"The new challenge will be to understand
the environment. The robot must be able to recognize another
car, to understand that it is moving and that it will interact
with it as it gets closer."
Thrun, who was speaking at the American
Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in
San Francisco, is a member of the Stanford team participating
in the DARPA competition, which will take place on November
3.
Stanford's entrant "Junior" is a converted
2006 Volkswagen Passat whose steering, throttle and brakes all
have been modified by engineers to be completely computer-controllable.
An array of lasers fitted on the car bumpers,
radar and global positioning systems feed data into the on-board
computer to determine its location and position.
Thrun predicted that leaps in artificial
intelligence would lead to driverless cars on the roads by 2030.
"Today we can drive about 100 miles (160
kilometers) before human assistance is necessary, by 2010 I
expect this to go 1,000 miles (1,160 kilometers), by 2020 up
to a million miles (1.6 million kilometers)," he said.
"By 2030 you'll be able to see them on
the highway, with a driving reliability that will exceed humans
by orders of magnitude.
"We believe this technology will affect
all of us. It is going to have enormous significance for people
who can't drive because of disabilities or because they are
ill or impaired."
Thrun said he believed robot-driven vehicles
would be deployed in war zones before they are seen in everyday
civilian environments.
"I think they'll be on the battlefield
by around 2015," he said. "It is going to make sense to use
them in situations such as convoys, or in hostile environments
where there is danger to personnel."
Article at: breitbart.com
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